Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
